Weather can make or break a hiking adventure. Understanding how to read forecasts and interpret natural signs can mean the difference between a magical day on the trail and a dangerous situation. Here's what every hiker needs to know about weather planning.

📊 Understanding Weather Forecasts

Not all forecasts are created equal. For hiking, pay attention to:

• Mountain forecasts - General forecasts are for lowland areas. Mountain weather can be drastically different
• Hourly breakdowns - Don't just look at the daily summary; conditions change throughout the day
• Probability of precipitation - A 30% chance doesn't mean light rain; it means there's a 30% chance it will rain at all
• Wind speed at elevation - Winds are typically stronger at higher altitudes

🌡️ Key Weather Factors for Hikers

Temperature

For every 1,000 meters of elevation gain, expect temperature to drop by approximately 6.5°C. If it's 25°C at the trailhead and you're climbing 1,500m, expect summit temperatures around 15°C—before wind chill.

Wind

Wind dramatically affects perceived temperature. A 10°C day with 30 km/h winds feels like 4°C. On exposed ridges and summits, wind can:

• Make balance difficult at speeds above 50 km/h
• Cause dangerous wind chill leading to hypothermia
• Create hazards from flying debris

Precipitation

Rain in mountains can mean:

• Slippery trails and rocks
• Reduced visibility
• Swollen creek crossings
• Rapid temperature drops
• Flash flood risk in canyons

⛈️ Weather Warning Signs

Learn to read the sky while on the trail:

• Cumulus clouds building vertically - Thunderstorms may develop
• Lenticular clouds (lens-shaped) - High winds at altitude
• Rapidly dropping pressure - Storm approaching
• Clouds flowing over ridges - Moisture and possible precipitation
• Ring around sun or moon - Rain likely within 24-48 hours

⚡ Lightning Safety

Lightning is a serious mountain hazard. If a storm approaches:

• Descend from peaks, ridges, and exposed areas immediately
• Avoid tall isolated trees, water, and metal objects
• Seek shelter in a low area, but not in narrow gullies that may flash flood
• If caught in the open, crouch low with feet together, minimising ground contact
• Count seconds between lightning and thunder: every 5 seconds = 1.6 km away

🌡️ Australian-Specific Considerations

Australia presents unique weather challenges:

• Extreme heat - Check total fire bans and park closures. In summer, start before dawn
• UV exposure - UV can be extreme even on cloudy days
• Bushfire risk - Monitor fire danger ratings and have evacuation plans
• Flash flooding - Desert and canyon areas can flood rapidly from distant storms

📱 Weather Resources

• Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) - Official Australian forecasts
• Windy.com - Visual weather data including wind patterns
• Weatherzone - Detailed Australian forecasts
• LogsKeptSimple - View weather data logged with your activities

The Decision to Go or Not

The mountains will always be there. If conditions look marginal, it's often better to postpone and try another day. No summit or adventure is worth risking your safety. Check the forecast, trust your judgment, and don't hesitate to turn back if conditions change.